New Zealand Election Results: Right Bloc Narrowly Ahead as Count Goes to Special Votes

New Zealand election results point to a cliffhanger after Saturday’s vote. The governing centre-right bloc of National, ACT and NZ First is narrowly ahead on preliminary numbers. However, no party has claimed victory, and thousands of special votes are still to be counted. Figures in this report are as of 4:30 PM PKT on 7 November 2026.

With 96.1 percent of voting places reported, the three coalition parties were on course for 67 seats in a 130-seat Parliament, according to RNZ. That is just one more than the 66 seats needed to govern. Meanwhile, the left-leaning bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori was on 56 seats.

New Zealand election results so far

The party vote is almost tied. National had 29.3 percent and Labour 29.2 percent on the preliminary count, RNZ reported. In raw numbers, National led by only about 2,500 votes out of nearly 2.38 million counted.

On those figures, the seats break down as follows:

National: 42 seats, all won in electorates
Labour: 35 seats
Greens: 16 seats
ACT: 13 seats
NZ First: 12 seats
Opportunity: 7 seats
Te Pāti Māori: 5 seats

The Greens took 13.3 percent of the party vote, ACT 11 percent and NZ First 9.8 percent. Opportunity, a smaller party, was on about 6 percent. That would put it above the 5 percent threshold for list seats.

Why Parliament could grow

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) system. Voters cast one vote for a local candidate and another for a party. Normally, the party vote decides each party’s share of seats.

This time, National appears to be winning more electorate seats than its party vote would give it. As a result, it keeps the extra seats, which are known as an “overhang”. Te Pāti Māori is in a similar position. RNZ counted 10 overhang seats, which is why Parliament would have 130 members instead of the usual 120.

Analysts told the New Zealand Herald that the overhang was helping the right bloc stay ahead. Even so, they warned that the margin was thin and could change.

Leaders urge caution

Party leaders avoided declaring victory on election night. Labour leader Chris Hipkins told supporters: “It’s clear we are not going to know the shape of our next government – yet.” He added that Labour was “not going anywhere”, whatever the final result.

NZ First leader Winston Peters, a key coalition partner, also struck a careful tone. “Don’t get carried away right here, right now, about what the outcome means,” he said, according to the Herald.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon had not given a full victory speech at the time of the reports we reviewed. Before the vote, he had ruled out working with Opportunity. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said she had not yet heard from him. Meanwhile, senior National MP Mark Mitchell declined to repeat that pledge. “We are operating in an MMP environment,” he said.

Senior National MPs at risk

Despite the bloc’s lead, several well-known National figures may lose their seats. Nicola Willis said she was unlikely to return to Parliament, the Herald reported. In addition, Paul Goldsmith appeared likely to miss out after failing to win Epsom from ACT leader David Seymour.

In Hutt South, Chris Bishop was trailing Labour’s Ginny Andersen by 1,009 votes with 93.8 percent counted. These outcomes were still described as likely, not final.

Special votes could decide the outcome

Special votes include ballots cast overseas, by people voting outside their electorate and by people who enrolled late. They were not part of the election-night count. In past elections, such votes have tended to favour parties on the left, analysts told the Herald.

Therefore, a swing of one or two seats is possible. If the coalition drops below 66 seats, Opportunity could hold the balance of power. That would force difficult talks, given Luxon’s earlier position.

What comes next

The Electoral Commission says it will publish the official result on 27 November. Until then, the preliminary numbers can change, especially in close electorates.

Coalition talks may begin informally in the meantime. Still, a final deal is unlikely before the official count is known. For now, New Zealand faces nearly three weeks of uncertainty over who will lead the country.