The Machado return remains uncertain as Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado weighs when to come home amid concerns from the Trump administration.
Four opposition sources told Reuters that Machado plans to return. However, they said she has not chosen a date. One source said she may travel from Panama to the United States before heading back to Venezuela.
Machado left Venezuela late last year after largely living in hiding following the disputed 2024 presidential election. She later traveled abroad to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.
Since then, Machado has repeatedly said she would return. She also pushed to come home after the United States removed former President Nicolas Maduro from power in January.
However, U.S. officials have privately urged her to delay the move, according to people familiar with the discussions. Reuters previously reported that Washington officials expressed concern about her efforts to return after Venezuela’s devastating June earthquakes.
US Transition Plans Leave Machado Out
Machado’s return could affect Venezuela’s political transition.
The United States has backed talks between the interim government and part of the opposition. Those discussions aim to reshape Venezuela’s political system before eventual elections.
However, Machado’s political movement does not take part in the talks.
Washington has instead supported an opposition faction linked to the 2015 legislature. That body remains the last Venezuelan legislature the United States recognizes as democratically elected. Reuters reported earlier that negotiations would proceed without Machado.
One source close to Machado said she had proposed leading the negotiations herself. The United States did not support that proposal.
Machado has focused on fair elections and democratic institutions. She has also said she would judge the U.S.-backed talks by their progress on those issues.
Trump Backs Delcy Rodriguez
Machado once sought to build a close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The political situation changed after Maduro’s removal. Trump has since backed interim President Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s former deputy.
Trump also said this month that it was too soon to consider democratic elections, according to Reuters.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also discussed Machado’s role. In a September interview, Rubio said she had every right to return. He also described her work with the Venezuelan diaspora as important.
A political analyst told Reuters that Washington worries Machado could disrupt its transition plans if she returned and mobilized supporters against Maduro-era officials.
The State Department declined to discuss private conversations about Machado’s possible return. Machado also did not respond to requests for comment.
Machado’s Approval Rating Falls
Machado remains a prominent opposition figure in Venezuela. However, her approval rating has fallen in recent months.
The monthly Latam Pulse survey from AtlasIntel and Bloomberg showed her approval at 53% in August. That marked a decline from 72% in July.
AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman said the boost Machado received after the earthquakes had faded as uncertainty grew. He also said the political situation had affected public perceptions of her plans.
Machado’s coalition said it won 67% of the 2024 presidential vote after publishing voting data from polling stations. The Venezuelan government reported a victory for Maduro, while the opposition rejected that result. International observers also questioned the official outcome.
Supporters Await Machado’s Return
Machado’s delayed return has created frustration among some opposition supporters.
One opposition figure outside Machado’s faction said her decision could carry a political cost. The figure also described her relationship with Washington as uncomfortable.
Meanwhile, Venezuelans continue to face problems with public services and healthcare.
Gabriel Hernandez, a metal worker and local opposition organizer in Maracaibo, said many people would support Machado if she returned.
He said supporters were waiting for her presence before the country moves toward elections.
For now, Machado has not announced a return date. Her next steps could therefore become an important part of Venezuela’s uncertain political transition.
