Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar says weight-loss pills could account for half of the global obesity drug market by 2030. His comments highlight a possible shift in the industry, where injectable treatments currently dominate.
Doustdar spoke to Reuters after Novo Nordisk’s Capital Markets Day in London. He said the Danish drugmaker is preparing for a future in which oral medicines play a much larger role in obesity treatment.
Novo Nordisk is developing five oral obesity treatments. The company has also moved quickly in the growing pill market after launching its oral Wegovy treatment earlier this year.
Pills Could Reshape the Obesity Drug Market
Doustdar said many competitors remain focused on injectable medicines. He believes that could create an opportunity for Novo Nordisk if demand for tablets grows significantly.
The CEO said the company is preparing for different market outcomes. One possibility is a 50-50 split between pills and injections by 2030.
That scenario would be larger than current Wall Street expectations. Analysts expect oral medicines to represent roughly 14% to 40% of the obesity drug market by the end of the decade.
The overall market is forecast to become a major pharmaceutical sector. Estimates suggest it could reach between $100 billion and $150 billion by 2030.
Novo Nordisk Tries to Regain Momentum
Novo Nordisk has experienced a major change in fortunes since Wegovy helped transform the company into one of Europe’s most valuable listed businesses.
The company’s shares have fallen more than 70% from their peak. Meanwhile, rival Eli Lilly has gained market share in the fast-growing obesity treatment market.
However, Novo Nordisk has received a boost from its oral Wegovy product.
Company presentations showed that oral medicines now account for around one-third of US obesity prescriptions following the pill’s rollout. Novo also said it has captured more than 80% of new prescriptions for oral obesity treatments.
The oral Wegovy pill generated nearly 5.5 billion Danish crowns, or about $843 million, in sales during the first half of the year.
Novo Expands Its Oral Drug Pipeline
Novo Nordisk is developing several additional oral obesity treatments as it prepares for growing demand for pills.
Its pipeline includes zenagamtide, a next-generation dual-acting tablet. The company is also working on an oral amylin analogue and a small-molecule obesity medicine.
Doustdar also addressed concerns about future competition from cheaper generic drugs.
He said patents covering the SNAC technology used to deliver oral Wegovy could protect the product from generic competition into the mid and late 2030s.
That protection could become important because the patent protection for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy, is expected to expire in the early 2030s.
Oral Treatments Could Become a Major Growth Area
The growing interest in weight-loss pills reflects changing expectations in the obesity treatment market. Injectable medicines remain dominant, but tablets could offer patients another option.
For Novo Nordisk, the shift could also provide an opportunity to rebuild its position after losing ground to Eli Lilly.
The company is now preparing for a market where oral treatments could become much more important. If Doustdar’s 50% scenario becomes reality, pills would represent a far larger share of obesity drug sales than many current forecasts suggest.
