Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada has created a surprising political effect in Quebec: support for independence has fallen to its lowest level in decades.
Trump’s tariffs have hit Quebec’s economy hard, particularly industries such as steel and aluminum. Yet instead of pushing more people toward separation from Canada, the pressure from the United States has encouraged many Quebecers to see strength in staying within the country.
Quebec is scheduled to hold its next provincial election by October 5. The separatist Parti Quebecois currently leads some polls, but analysts say a potential victory would reflect frustration with the provincial government rather than strong support for independence.
Polls put support for an independent Quebec at around 30%, a significant decline from previous periods of separatist momentum.
Trump Tariffs Hit Quebec Businesses
The economic impact is already visible in Quebec communities.
After Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian steel last June, a steel factory in Quebec lost roughly a third of its orders for bolts and fasteners within days.
The Heico Companies responded by freezing hiring, closing a plant and laying off several dozen workers in the province.
The company ultimately cut about 140 jobs, mostly in Quebec.
David Jeannotte, an operations director at the factory, said his own brother lost his job.
Before the tariffs, about 90% of the factory’s products went to the United States. Some of its bolts have even been used in projects such as New York’s Empire State Building.
Jeannotte said some employees now work fewer hours. Others have even worked without pay on certain days.
He believes Trump’s policies have changed the political conversation around Quebec independence.
“As long as Trump will be in his chair, I don’t feel that we even need to talk about that,” Jeannotte said.
Quebec Separatism Loses Momentum
Quebec has a long history of separatism.
As Canada’s only majority French-speaking province, Quebec has maintained a powerful independence movement for decades. Separatists argue that creating an independent country would better protect the province’s French language and culture.
Quebec has held two independence referendums.
The most recent vote, in 1995, produced an extremely narrow victory for those who wanted to remain in Canada.
Today, however, the political environment looks very different.
The Parti Quebecois supports another independence referendum if it returns to power. But party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has said he would not hold one while Trump remains president.
That position reflects the political uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs and his repeated comments about Canada becoming the 51st US state.
Plamondon said Quebec’s political future should not become a victim of American political turmoil or fear.
Trump Unites Quebec With Canada
Trump’s approach to Canada has triggered a strong patriotic response across Quebec.
The province has often challenged the federal government and questioned its place within Canada. Yet the threat of US pressure has encouraged many Quebecers to stand alongside the rest of the country.
Stéphane Bédard, a former interim Parti Quebecois leader, said postponing an independence referendum may be necessary.
He argued that Quebec remains strong but faces an external threat that has created significant insecurity.
Trump remains particularly unpopular in Quebec.
August polling from Angus Reid found that only 10% of Quebecers had a favourable opinion of the US president.
Jonathan Kalles, a former adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said Trump represents values that many Quebecers have opposed for decades.
Trump’s conservative policies have also attracted criticism in the province. His administration’s description of Quebec’s French-language requirements as a trade irritant has further angered many residents.
Quebec Faces Heavy Economic Pressure
Trump’s tariffs have also created serious economic concerns.
Economists say Quebec ranks among the Canadian provinces most exposed to the tariffs because of its large steel and aluminum industries.
A Bank of Montreal report published in March estimated that Quebec’s economy would grow by around 1% this year.
That compares with projected growth of more than 2% in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The economic slowdown has added to concerns about jobs, investment and household finances.
But rather than making independence more attractive, the trade conflict has convinced some Quebecers that the province needs Canada’s economic and political strength to deal with Washington.
Separatists Still Push for Independence
Not everyone has abandoned the independence cause.
Marie-Anne Alepin, president of the separatist Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal, argues that recent federal decisions show why Quebec needs greater control over its own affairs.
She criticized Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to eliminate a tax that helps finance Canadian programming.
Ottawa has promised to replace the lost revenue with government funding.
Alepin argues that Canada cannot adequately defend Quebec’s interests.
For her, independence remains the best way for Quebec to have a stronger voice in international and economic negotiations.
Farmers Call for a National Response
Other Quebecers strongly disagree.
Vincent Rainville, a fourth-generation Quebec dairy farmer with more than 250 cows, said Trump’s policies have affected the entire Canadian economy.
Nearly half of Canada’s dairy farms operate in Quebec, making the sector particularly important to the province.
Rainville said the current crisis requires a response from all of Canada rather than Quebec alone.
“If I supported an independent Quebec, I would not want to talk about that policy now,” he said.
The debate highlights an unexpected consequence of Trump’s trade policies.
For decades, economic and political frustrations helped fuel Quebec’s independence movement. Today, however, pressure from Washington is encouraging many Quebecers to put separation aside.
For now, Trump’s tariffs appear to be strengthening Canadian unity rather than accelerating Quebec’s push for independence.
