Iran leverage in talks may be shaping Tehran’s approach to negotiations, according to Stephen Zunes, a professor of politics and Middle Eastern studies at the University of San Francisco.
Zunes said Iran’s largely unchanged conditions for ending the war suggest that Tehran believes it has gained leverage and therefore sees little reason to make major concessions. His assessment comes as pressure continues to build around efforts to find a diplomatic path out of the conflict.
Iran Sees Pressure as a Bargaining Tool
According to Zunes, Tehran appears to believe it can use the wider consequences of the war to strengthen its position at the negotiating table.
“I think they feel like they have the upper hand,” Zunes told Al Jazeera.
He pointed to Iran’s ability to widen the conflict, threaten US military bases in the region and disrupt important trade routes. Those capabilities, he argued, could give Tehran additional influence as negotiations continue.
Zunes has previously argued that Iran has developed ways to impose significant costs on US assets and regional infrastructure despite facing a much larger military force. He has also highlighted the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran’s bargaining position.
As a result, Zunes believes Iranian officials may expect the pressure created by the conflict to eventually push Washington toward a compromise.
Tehran May Expect Sanctions Relief
However, Zunes also identified what he sees as a possible sign of flexibility in Iran’s position.
He noted that Tehran no longer appears to be insisting on compensation for the damage caused by the war. In his view, dropping that demand could indicate that Iran has adjusted some of its expectations.
“I think they realise that that was pretty unrealistic,” he said.
Instead, Iran may be looking toward sanctions relief and renewed foreign investment as possible ways to support reconstruction.
That approach would allow Tehran to focus on rebuilding its economy while avoiding a demand that could prove especially difficult for negotiators to accept.
What Iran Could Seek From a Deal
Zunes believes sanctions relief could become an important part of any future agreement. Foreign investment could also help Iran repair damaged infrastructure and restart economic activity after the conflict.
At the same time, the central disagreements between Washington and Tehran remain significant. Earlier negotiations have faced disputes over sanctions, Iran’s nuclear programme and the conditions required for a lasting agreement.
For now, Zunes’ assessment suggests that Iran may enter further discussions believing it has enough leverage to resist demands it considers unacceptable.
However, the absence of a demand for war compensation could provide one possible opening for compromise. Whether that flexibility can translate into a broader agreement will depend on the positions taken by both sides in future negotiations.
