Barclays has warned that its outlook for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 faces significant upside risks if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, with prolonged tensions potentially pushing prices as high as $150 per barrel.
The investment bank said the longer the shipping impasse lasts, the greater the pressure on global oil markets.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Raises Oil Price Risks
According to Barclays, if the current disruption continues for one month, Brent prices could rise about $2 per barrel above its existing 2026 forecast of $96 per barrel.
A two-month disruption could lift prices by $7 per barrel, while a three-month impasse could push Brent roughly $10 per barrel higher than current projections.
The bank added that spot oil prices would likely react first and could temporarily test $150 per barrel in a prolonged disruption scenario.
Oil Hits $100 as Supply Concerns Grow
Brent crude briefly climbed to $100 per barrel this week for the first time since May after renewed conflict increased fears over disruptions to global energy supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although prices eased slightly below the $100 mark on Friday, uncertainty surrounding one of the world’s busiest energy shipping routes continues to support the market.
Key Global Energy Transit Route
Before the latest conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled nearly 20% of global oil and energy shipments, making it one of the world’s most critical supply corridors.
Any prolonged interruption could significantly affect global energy markets and increase fuel costs worldwide.
Long-Term Market Outlook Remains Mixed
Despite the short-term risks, Barclays has maintained its Brent price forecasts of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 per barrel for 2027.
Analysts expect tighter oil supplies next year due to geopolitical tensions. However, increasing production from the United States, recovering Gulf exports and slowing demand growth in China are expected to shift the market toward oversupply in 2027.
