Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are almost tied ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election.
A new Nexus poll, commissioned by lender BTG Pactual, puts Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in a potential second-round contest.
The one-point gap falls within the poll’s margin of error. The result therefore points to a highly competitive race.
Lula Holds Narrow Lead in Runoff
The latest poll shows Lula with a slight advantage in a potential runoff.
Lula would receive 46% of the vote. Bolsonaro would take 45%.
The figures mark a tighter race than an earlier poll from August 17.
That survey gave Lula a 47% to 44% lead over Bolsonaro.
The latest numbers suggest Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap as the election approaches.
Lula Leads First-Round Voting
Lula also leads Bolsonaro in the latest first-round scenario.
The president would receive 41% of the vote, according to the Nexus poll.
Bolsonaro follows with 37%.
Ronaldo Caiado ranks third with 5%. Renan Santos and Romeu Zema each receive 3%.
The previous survey put Lula at 41% and Bolsonaro at 36%.
Brazil Election Could Go to a Runoff
Brazil’s presidential election uses a two-round voting system.
A candidate must win more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff.
If no candidate reaches that threshold, the two leading candidates face each other in a second round.
The latest poll indicates that Lula and Bolsonaro would advance if the first-round results followed the survey.
Poll Shows Tight Race Ahead of October Vote
The narrowing gap between Lula and Bolsonaro highlights the competitive nature of the upcoming election.
Lula remains ahead in both the first-round and runoff scenarios. However, Bolsonaro’s support has increased compared with the previous poll.
The one-point difference in the simulated runoff also falls within the survey’s margin of error.
That makes the final outcome difficult to predict at this stage.
Nexus Poll Surveys More Than 2,000 People
Nexus surveyed 2,006 people between August 21 and 23.
The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.
Because the margin is larger than the one-point gap between Lula and Bolsonaro in the runoff scenario, the survey does not show a clear leader within its statistical range.
The campaign could still shift significantly before Brazilians cast their votes in October.
Brazil Election Campaign Enters Key Phase
The latest figures point to a closely fought presidential contest between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.
Lula’s lead in the first round gives him an advantage in the current survey. However, the runoff numbers show that Bolsonaro remains within striking distance.
With the election approaching, both campaigns will face pressure to win undecided voters and strengthen their support across Brazil.
