Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as fresh attacks by the United States and Iran on vessels increased fears of a prolonged supply disruption.
Brent crude futures rose 52 cents, or 0.54%, to $96.80 a barrel by 2354 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 66 cents, or 0.72%, to $92.14 a barrel.
The latest gains followed a sharp rally last week. Brent jumped 7.8%, while WTI climbed almost 10% as renewed US-Iran attacks disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz faces growing pressure
The Strait of Hormuz has become a major focus of the conflict.
Around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply previously moved through the strategic waterway. Any prolonged disruption could therefore have a major impact on global energy markets.
US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, according to US Central Command. One of the vessels was hit near Kharg Island, which serves as a major Iranian oil export hub.
Iran also reported attacks on vessels.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said it targeted three oil tankers using what it described as unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz. It also said it targeted three additional US vessels in other locations.
Commercial shipping caught in conflict
The latest attacks have raised concerns about the safety of commercial vessels operating in and around the strait.
Maritime intelligence firm Marisks described Saturday’s attacks as a major escalation in the maritime conflict.
The company said commercial tankers were increasingly becoming part of the economic pressure campaign between the two sides.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen sharply.
Kpler data showed that an average of only 10 commodity ships crossed the strait each day during the previous 10 days. That was the lowest level recorded since May.
Iran also warned that it could introduce further restrictions.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Sunday that authorities would announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, according to Iranian state media.
OPEC+ keeps October policy unchanged
The supply concerns come as OPEC+ reviews its production strategy.
The producer group said Sunday that it would keep its oil output policy unchanged for October. Members still need to agree on new quotas before deciding their next production steps.
The decision comes at a sensitive time for the global oil market.
A prolonged conflict could keep Middle Eastern supplies below normal levels even if fighting does not intensify significantly.
Oil supply recovery could take months
Analysts at ANZ said a prolonged standoff with limited military action from both sides appeared to be the most likely scenario.
They expect that situation to delay a full recovery in Middle Eastern oil supplies.
ANZ analysts said exports could remain restricted through the rest of 2026. They expect a gradual reopening toward the end of the fourth quarter.
However, they do not expect oil flows to return to pre-war levels until late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2027.
For global energy markets, the Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk. Continued attacks on commercial vessels could keep oil prices elevated and increase pressure on countries that rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy supplies.
