Turkey has raised its year-end inflation forecast to 28.4 percent, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz announced on Sunday. The revised outlook was presented as the government unveiled its medium-term economic programme for 2027-2029.
Yilmaz said inflation is expected to begin falling again during the fourth quarter of 2026. However, he acknowledged that the new forecast is well above the government’s earlier target. Last year’s medium-term programme had projected year-end inflation at 16 percent.
Inflation Forecast Raised Sharply
Under the latest economic programme, Turkey expects inflation to decline gradually over the coming years. The government projects inflation at 21 percent in 2027. It then expects the rate to fall to 13.5 percent in 2028 and reach nine percent by 2029.
Meanwhile, official figures showed that Turkey’s annual inflation rate eased slightly in August. Inflation fell to 31.51 percent from 31.75 percent in July. Despite the decline, prices remain under significant pressure.
Yilmaz blamed part of the worsening outlook on the conflict in the Middle East. He said the country’s central bank estimates that the war could have direct and indirect effects on inflation of around seven percentage points.
Government Maintains Focus on Inflation
Turkey has struggled with high inflation for several years. Annual inflation has remained above 30 percent since December 2021. It reached a peak of more than 75 percent in May 2024 before starting a sustained decline.
Yilmaz defended the government’s economic policies and said significant progress had already been made. He described inflation as the main priority of the latest economic programme.
The vice president pointed to the sharp drop from the 75.5 percent rate recorded in May 2024. He said the decline showed that the government’s measures were beginning to produce results.
Still, the higher 2026 forecast highlights the challenges facing Turkey’s economic policymakers. Officials now face pressure to bring inflation down while protecting economic growth and household purchasing power.
